Showing posts with label macroeconomy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label macroeconomy. Show all posts

3/14/2009

PM Wen Concerns Over China's U.S. Treasurys

BEIJING -- Premier Wen Jiabao voiced confidence in China's economy, saying his government's finances give it room to spend even more to support growth if needed, but expressed concern about the outlook for the U.S. and the safety of its Treasury bonds.

The forceful comments from Mr. Wen's annual press conference -- a rare opportunity for domestic and foreign reporters to ask a top Chinese official questions directly -- helped depress the U.S. dollar and prices of U.S. Treasurys in Asian trading Friday.

The public airing of his concerns reflect how the relationship between China and the U.S. has been evolving under the pressure of the financial crisis. For years the U.S. has pressed China to change the way it runs its economy, such as by opening up its financial system. But in the last year China's government has been increasingly vocal about what it sees as U.S. economic mismanagement. And as the U.S. government's largest creditor, it has become more assertive in trying to ensure its interests receive a hearing.

"We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S., so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. Frankly speaking, I do have some worries," Mr. Wen said in response to a question. He did not offer specific suggestions on economic policy to the U.S. government, but called on it to "maintain its credibility, honor its commitments and guarantee the security of Chinese assets."

Mr. Wen did indicate that China would not be rash in making changes to its $1.946 trillion stockpile of foreign reserves, much of which is in U.S. dollars. While China is naturally looking out for its own interests, it will "at the same time also take international financial stability into consideration, because the two are inter-related," he said.

In that vein, Mr. Wen also pointed out that China hasn't pushed down the value of the yuan, despite pressure on its exporters, and repeated his government's commitment to currency stability. The yuan has hovered around 6.84 to the dollar since July 2008, but Mr. Wen noted that because the dollar has risen against other Asian and European currencies, the yuan has actually become stronger overall.

He said China alone would decide where the yuan goes from here. "No country can pressure us to appreciate or depreciate" the currency, he said.

Despite the rising external challenges, Mr. Wen reaffirmed his belief that China should be able meet its traditional target of economic growth of around 8% this year. He said market expectations last week of another stimulus package were based on "rumors and misunderstandings," and that China's announced program of four trillion yuan in investments over two years will help meet "both short-term and long-term needs."

China's government is planning on an eightfold expansion of its budget deficit this year, to around 3% of gross domestic product, to fund the stimulus program. Mr. Wen said government debt remained at a manageable level and that conservative budgeting in previous years means China is well positioned to do more if necessary.

"We have already prepared plans to deal with greater difficulties, and have reserved adequate ammunition. We can introduce new stimulus policies at any time," he said.

Mr. Wen said that China is also closely watching to see the effects of the policies taken by U.S. President Barack Obama aimed at returning the world's largest economy to health. Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi was also in Washington this week to discuss how the two countries can cooperate on economic policy, among other issues.

A test of that cooperation is quickly approaching. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this week called on the Group of 20 – a gathering of the world's largest developed and developing economies – to increase funding for the International Monetary Fund by up to $500 billion to help combat the financial crisis. Achieving that sum likely will depend on getting agreement from countries that hold large foreign exchange reserves, such as China and Saudi Arabia.

Ahead of a preparatory meeting of G-20 financial officials this weekend near London, Mr. Wen said pointedly that "increased funding for the IMF is not a question for just one country" but for all member nations. He also repeated China's desire to see reforms to the IMF that give more clout to developing nations.

The Chinese premier's annual press conference is held each March at the close of the country's legislative session. Mr. Wen was asked about a broad range of subjects, from relations with France and Russia to the possibility of political reform in China and the sensitive issue of Tibet.

Mr. Wen used harsh language against the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, who accused the Chinese government this week of turning the Himalayan region into a "hell on earth." He said talks between Beijing and the Dalai Lama, which took place last year without making any progress, could only resume if the Dalai Lama is "sincere."

Despite blanket security in Tibet around the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's flight from Tibet, Mr. Wen said that "the situation in Tibet on the whole is stable. The Tibetan people hope to live and work in peace and stability."

3/05/2009

Global stocks rise on China hopes

NEW YORK - World stocks bounced back from multiyear lows on Wednesday, buoyed by signs of economic recovery in China and plans by its government to increase fiscal spending, news that helped lift oil and metals prices.

U.S. crude oil futures jumped more than 7 percent, extending gains to top $45 a barrel after inventory of crude in the United States declined unexpectedly and demand for gasoline rose.

Euro zone and U.S. government debt prices mostly fell as the rebound in equities undermined investors' appetite for less risky fixed-income assets.

But the cost of borrowing dollars over three months nudged higher as ongoing worries over the financial sector, where counterparty risks have risen, kept banks wary about lending to each other.

A key gauge of Chinese manufacturing rose in February for the third straight month, hitting a five-month high and lifting investor optimism on hopes the data signaled that China, a major driver of global growth, may be on the brink of economic recovery. China also said it will boost spending on infrastructure and manufacturing under a second stimulus package.

The Shanghai Composite Index , the main Chinese stock index, surged 6.1 percent in its biggest gain since November.

European shares rallied, breaking three straight sessions of losses, and U.S. stocks snapped a five-day sell-off. Higher prices for oil and other commodities -- driven by China hopes -- spurred energy and natural resource stocks.

"The market is encouraged by the news from China," said Joe Arsenio, president of Arsenio Capital Management in Larkspur, California. "They believe (China) will gain traction in the second quarter."

Exxon Mobil gained 2.1 percent while miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc rose 14 percent.

Shares of Caterpillar Inc , a big exporter to China and a major seller of equipment to the mining industry, rose 13.7 percent.

After 1 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 117.08 points, or 1.74 percent, at 6,843.10. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 12.03 points, or 1.73 percent, at 708.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 27.05 points, or 2.05 percent, at 1,348.06.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares closed at 696.23 points, up 4 percent.

Miners Rio Tinto gained 14 percent and BHP Billiton rose 12.9 percent on the back of higher copper prices, while steelmaker ArcelorMittal rose 12.4 percent.

Copper jumped over 5 percent to its highest level in more than three months as investors pinned hopes on demand from China, the world's largest consumer of the red metal.

The rise in equity markets around the world overshadowed more dire economic data suggesting that the U.S. and euro zone recessions have yet to hit bottom.

U.S. private companies hemorrhaged 697,000 jobs in February and the service sector slump deepened [ID:nN04538530].

The dollar vaulted to a four-month high against the yen as another slide in the U.S. private-employer payrolls and persistent worries about the world economy boosted safe-haven flows into the U.S. currency.

But the dollar cut earlier gains against the euro and sterling as stocks rallied and investors took profits ahead of Friday's government payrolls report and interest rate decisions due Thursday from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

The dollar rose as much as 99.48 yen, closing in on 100 for the first time since early November, as investors worried about Japan's struggling economy and the U.S. jobless data.

The dollar rose 0.97 percent at 99.25 against the yen, but it fell against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index .DXY down 0.49 percent at 88.751.

The euro rose 0.40 percent at $1.2615.

U.S. government debt fell. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 36/32 in price to yield 3.02 percent. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note slipped 6/32 in price to yield 0.98 percent.

U.S. light sweet crude oil rose $2.73 to $44.38 per barrel.

Gold fell in Europe, flirting with three-week lows, as the bounce in equities lured investors back into riskier assets.

Spot gold prices fell $8.40 to $906.85 an ounce.

Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday on hopes Beijing will step up efforts to support the Chinese economy,

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 rose 0.9 percent, after sliding to a 25-year low on Tuesday. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 1.3 percent.

(Reuters)

2/03/2009

FT: Message from Wen

Wen Jiabao is on the fifth leg of what he calls his "Journey of Confidence" in Europe and he has been up since before dawn jogging in London's Hyde Park. But the 67-year-old Chinese premier looks sprightly and dapper as he raises his index finger, looks his interviewers in the eye and says: "I am ready to be open and sincere."

His European trip might come as a welcome relief from political pressures at home. Mr Wen is under fire because of the slump in the Chinese economy - which, he acknowledges, slowed sharply in the period after the August Olympics in Beijing.

But in London he is the man of the moment. Tony Blair, former UK prime minister, and David Cameron, leader of the opposition Conservative party, are both waiting in the wings at the Mandarin Oriental hotel for an audience, while at Davos, Switzerland, last week the delegates hung on his every word.

In a rare interview, Mr Wen outlined in forceful terms Beijing's approach to dealing with the global financial crisis - frenetic activity at home, cautious engagement abroad. International expectations of China are intense - almost on the same scale as those facing US president Barack Obama. But Mr Wen does not see China's role as saving capitalism from itself.

Hopes in London and elsewhere that China would hand over a large chunk of its near $2,000bn (€1,560bn, £1,380bn) foreign reserves to help recapitalise the International Monetary Fund are likely to be disappointed. Mr Wen also plays down the idea of signing up to a new environmental treaty at the talks in Copenhagen later this year that would place limits on the country's carbon emissions.

Asked if China bore any responsibility for causing the financial crisis, as a number of economists believe, he stiffens and says in a low voice: "It is a ridiculous view."

But he makes it clear that Beijing will do whatever is needed to maintain growth at "about 8 per cent" this year. "Running our own affairs well is our biggest contribution to mankind," he said. If necessary, some of the country's huge stash of foreign currency reserves could be put towards this endeavour - a new plan to enable the use of reserves for domestic purposes is under discussion, he says.

Even before the crisis, 2009 was going to be another big year for China. It is laden with important and potentially controversial anniversaries, from the 60th anniversary of the foundation of the People's Republic of China to the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests. The economy is slowing sharply - the 6.8 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of last year represented the country's poorest economic performance in a decade. Chinese exports have started to shrink and tens of thousands of manufacturers have gone bankrupt, sending 12m redundant migrant factory workers tramping home to their villages. Mr Wen, who was the visible face of the government during the earthquake last year and has intimate knowledge of rural China, is facing his sternest test since taking the helm as premier in 2003.

"We must take forceful steps. Under special circumstances, necessary and extraordinary measures are required," he says. "We should not be restricted by conventions. Success or failure depends on the pace and intensity of those measures."

Stimulating growth before the current slowdown deepens into a prolonged slump is the top priority. Referring to a raft of initiatives that the government has already announced, including aRmb4,000bn ($585bn, €460bn, £400bn) fiscal spending package aimed mainly at infrastructure spending, Mr Wen says that further efforts may be required.

The government intends to fight on several fronts. Most important is the infrastructure spending and this, he says, is already well under way. But also key is a long list of measures aimed at providing the softer context to a comprehensive stimulus effort - including initiatives to boost consumer spending and welfare.

The sales tax on vehicles with small engines has been halved. Meanwhile, 74m low-income people have received lump-sum spending subsidies. Former employees of state-owned enterprises received pension supplements, there have beensubsistence allowances for vulnerable groups, and Beijing has significantly increased the salaries of 12m primary and middle school teachers in the state system.

The trick in spurring consumer spending is not to engage in sloganising, Mr Wen says, but actually to put money into people's pockets. "We do believe that consumer spending is vital in boosting economic development."

Several commentators in the west have called upon China to overhaul its economic model by rebalancing away from its current heavy reliance on investment, savings and production and embrace a more consumer-oriented system instead. Most observers agree that such a shift would require Beijing to relieve pressure on consumers by beefing up social welfare, healthcare and education provisions.

Mr Wen reiterates his pledge to put in place a "fairly comprehensive social safety net". He adds that Beijing has already announced an Rmb850bn medical care spending plan and would spend Rmb600bn on unspecified technological upgrading.

The rural economy, which offers a livelihood to more than 700m Chinese, is also in for a boost, says Mr Wen, with the recapitalisation of the Agricultural Bank of China, the last of the big five state-owned banks to receive a large injection of state funds. The ABC is receiving an injection of $30bn, he says.

If Mr Wen expresses confidence in the government's ability to weather the challenge to the domestic economy, he strikes a more defensive note about some of the international questions raised by the crisis.

Shortly before he left office, Hank Paulson, former US Treasury secretary, said in an interview with the Financial Times that the huge volume of savings in countries such as China had been one of the root causes of the crisis because it reduced risk premiums around the world.

Mr Wen is having none of it. "I think the main reason for this global financial crisis is the imbalances of some of the economies themselves. For a long time they have had double [fiscal and current account] deficits and kept up high consumption based on massive borrowing." Banks used excessive leverage to reap huge profits. "And when such a bubble bursts, the whole world has been exposed to a big disaster," he says.

"It is completely confounding right and wrong when some countries who have been overspending then blame those who lend them money for their spending," he argues. Mr Wen points to a famous proverb in China about Zhu Ba Jie, a fictitious character in the 16th-century Chinese fable, Journey to the West, who always blames others who try to help him. "When I shared this view at Davos with the world business leaders, they all agreed with me on that," he says.

He gives equally short shrift to the argument put forward by Timothy Geithner, the new US Treasury Secretary, that China is "manipulating" its currency. "Completely unfounded," he says: the renminbi had appreciated 21 per cent since China adopted a managed float of its currency in 2005.

Mr Wen refuses to make an explicit commitment not to devalue the Chinese currency during the crisis - as the government did after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, a pledge that helped engineer the eventual recovery and won China a lot of prestige. But he does rule out any big shifts in the value of the Chinese currency.

"I want to make it very clear that maintaining the stability of renminbi at a balanced and reasonable level is not only in the interests of China but also the interests of the world," he says. "Many people have not yet come to see this point that if we have drastic fluctuation in the exchange rate of the renminbi, it would be a big disaster."

Mr Wen says that Hu Jintao, China's president, and Mr Obama spoke late last week on the telephone, but would not confirm reports in the US that Mr Obama had told his Chinese counterpart that the new administration would not take a confrontational approach over the currency issue. He expresses a hope for "increased co-operation" with the US, but says that there are a lot of different "voices" in the US debate.

Mr Wen says China, which is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, would continue to be an active participant in the market. "We believe that it is important to stabilise the current Treasury bond market. To do so will be in the interest of shoring up market confidence, overcoming the global financial crisis and facilitating the early recovery of international markets," he says.

But he also issues a veiled warning that China might rethink its long-term investment strategy for its reserves once the immediate crisis is over, when some economists believe the huge borrowing the US is undertaking could lead to a slump in the value of the dollar. "We will take into account China's own needs to maintain the safety and good value of our foreign exchange reserves," he says.

China's new prominence is coming with new responsibilities, yet Mr Wen is keen not to be pushed into too many expensive commitments. He plays down any idea that China will use a large slice of its reserves to recapitalise international financial institutions, notably the IMF. Any process of reforming the IMF should start not with capital injections but with reorganising its voting rights to give developing countries a bigger role. Mr Wen also stresses that China is still a relatively poor nation with huge development challenges ahead, which will limit its generosity.

He uses the same argument to push back against pressure to sign up for carbon emission cuts under the negotiations for the revised Kyoto treaty, which are due to be completed at Copenhagen later this year. China will continue to set itself targets for improving its energy efficiency, he says. But it would be difficult for a developing nation "to undertake quantified measures to reduce our emissions".

The Chinese government is equally nervous that the crisis will spur calls for swifter political reform and challenge its monopoly on power. That anxiety has been evident in the arrest and harassment of some of the backers of Charter 08, a manifesto that calls for direct elections, the rule of law and an end to the one-party state.

Mr Wen is accustomed to fending off questions about the pace of political reform in China, with broad-brush statements about eventual liberalisation. "Many people in the west think that China is afraid of elections and democracy. Only if you have the trust of your people will they be willing to keep you in power," he says. But he provides little detail about any time-table for expanding direct elections beyond villages and the few townships where experiments have been held.

An eclectic reader, Mr Wen says that when he travels he always carries a copy of The Theory of Moral Sentiments by Adam Smith, the Scottish economist, which lays out the moral underpinnings for governing societies - and market economies.

"Adam Smith wrote that in a society if all the wealth is concentrated and owned by only a small number of people, it will not be stable," he says. It is an observation that holds just as well for the crisis-ridden US as it does for China, with its skewed model of development and rising inequality.

A mandarin's mandarin with a populist touch

When Wen Jiabao took over as Chinese premier in 2003, one of the few things that people outside of China knew about the former geologist was a famous photograph taken in Tiananmen Square at the height of the 1989 protests.

As a high-ranking official in the Communist party apparatus, Mr Wen worked closely with the reformist general-secretary Zhao Ziyang, and he was with Mr Zhao on the evening he went to the square for a tearful talk with some of the students.

When Mr Zhao and most of his reformist allies were purged, Mr Wen managed to keep his job. The skills that saved his career were a keen attention to detail and a reputation for unswerving loyalty to his superiors. He was the mandarin's mandarin.

Since becoming premier, he has shown a different side that has won him considerable popular support. In a political system where the top leaders wear the same suits and dye their hair the same colour, Mr Wen - the son of rural teachers - has demonstrated a populist touch. He spends Chinese New Year in poor rural areas and is often photographed visiting hospitals or schools.

Within hours of the May earthquake in Sichuan, Mr Wen was on an plane to the disaster zone to direct operations, with television cameras covering his every move. "This is Grandpa Wen here," he called down to one child trapped in the rubble. Authoritarianism for a new media age.

(FT)

1/29/2009

PM Wen addresses China's economy at Davos

DAVOS, Switzerland - China's Premier Wen Jiabao blamed the United States' debt-financed spending binge and blind pursuit of profit for the global financial crisis in a speech at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday.


"Inappropriate macroeconomic policies in some economies and their unsustainable model of development, characterised by prolonged low savings and high consumption," was first in a list of reasons Wen cited for the crisis.

This was a clear reference to the United States, which has a savings rate below zero and relies heavily upon Chinese buying of U.S. debt to finance its huge current account deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP and growing.
But Wen chose not to address directly a brewing row over the value of its currency -- an issue closely tied to U.S. debt issuance.

The new U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week surprised China by branding it a currency manipulator for depressing the value of the yuan to support its exports. Geithner was joined by the International Monetary Fund, which said the Chinese yuan was under valued.

This disappointed Beijing since the previous administration avoided the term for years, aware of U.S. dependence on China to buy its debt, and instead pursued dialogue.

In his speech, Wen also listed excessive expansion of financial institutions in the "blind pursuit of profit," the failure of regulation, lack of discipline by ratings agencies, and the spread of derivatives for the financial turmoil that has sent major economies tumbling into recession.

To tackle the crisis, Wen threw his weight behind efforts in the Group of 20 major economies to reform the financial system by tightening regulation and oversight. In particular, Wen supported strengthening the supervision of major reserve countries, a role given to the IMF but never effectively utilised.

Wen travels to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday as part of an European tour to discuss cooperation in solving the financial crisis.

MEASURED OPTIMISM ON CHINA
On the outlook for China, Wen struck a tone of measured optimism. He said there were early signs that the economy may have started to turn around in late November. He pointed to a marked increase in lending and activity at ports.

"To be honest, it will be a tall order to achieve a growth rate of 8 percent in 2009, but I still retain the conviction that we will achieve this," Wen told business and political leaders in his keynote speech at the four-day gathering.
China, the world's third-largest economy, has slowed much more abruptly than expected in the face of the financial crisis, as wilting U.S. and European demand have slammed the country's export sector.

Annual economic growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, from 13 percent in all of 2007. The 9 percent pace for 2008 was the slowest in seven years; growth slowed despite five interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

That has muted hopes that China could help pull the global economy out of the current slowdown.

(Reuters)

1/20/2009

Despite crisis, Jim Rogers is still a China bull

HONG KONG, Jan 19 - The global financial crisis has only strengthened reknowned international investor Jim Rogers' acerbic criticisms about the U.S. economy and his resoundingly optimistic view on China's future.

Rogers, co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, railed at the Federal Reserve and incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while also saying the high saving rate and solid fundamentals in China make it a powerful force to be reckoned with.

"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

Rogers, who is now an independent investor living in Singapore, said he was going to use the U.S. dollar rally in the last six months to get out of all his investments in dollar-denominated assets and keep buying Chinese equities, the Japanese yen and commodities.

He said his bets against U.S. investment banks, the two largest U.S. mortgage providers Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and the yen kept his portfolio in the positive last year, but the rest of his investments suffered.

He accused U.S. authorities of consciously trying to devalue the U.S. dollar by flooding the market with liquidity -- or in his words, "turning on the printing presses" -- and said anyone chasing the rally in government bonds is making a "terrible mistake."

"The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous," he said.

Underscoring his convictions, Rogers began his speech by showing pictures of his two young children, both of whom he said have Swiss bank accounts and speak Mandarin.

The Quantum Fund shot to fame after making more than $1 billion betting against the British pound in early 1990s.

(Reuters)

1/15/2009

China Grows to World's Third-Largest Economy

BEIJING, Jan. 14 -- China leapfrogged over Germany to become the world's third-largest economy in 2007, sooner than predicted, underscoring how quickly the concentration of global economic power has shifted.

Although earlier estimates had put growth of China's gross domestic product that year at 11.9 percent, revised figures released Wednesday by the government statistics bureau show that its economy actually expanded by 13 percent to $3.38 trillion. That compares with Germany's 2007 GDP of $3.32 trillion.

"It was inevitable," said Ting Lu, a Merrill Lynch economist based in Hong Kong.

Whether the growth trajectory will continue, however, has been complicated by the global recession, which has already prompted massive layoffs and waves of company closures, especially across southeastern China, the heartland of its export-driven economy. If China were to continue to grow at its current rate, economists say it could surpass Japan in as soon as three years and the United States in 18 years to become the world's No. 1 economy.

In 2007, the United States remained the world's largest economy with a GDP of $13.8 trillion and Japan the second-largest with a $4.38 trillion GDP, according to calculations based on an annual average of daily exchange rates by Merrill Lynch.

China is one of the few major economies that is on track to have positive GDP growth this year. Merrill Lynch, for example, calculates that China will have a GDP growth of 8 percent as compared with declines of 2.8 percent for the United States, 1.3 percent for Japan and 0.6 percent for the European Union.

"In 2007, the gap between the growth rates of China and other big countries was huge. Actually in 2009 the gap between will be even bigger," Merrill Lynch's Lu said.

But even if China achieves a projected 8 percent rate of growth this year, that might be insufficient to stop the wave of company bankruptcies and layoffs that have alarmed China's leaders. Economic data released earlier this week only added to the pessimism: Exports dropped 2.8 percent in December from the same month a year ago, the sharpest decline in a decade.

In the early days of the global economic crisis, some economists had debated whether China would serve as an engine that would keep Asia from being pulled into the turmoil affecting other parts of the world. Pakistan, which was suffering from a balance of payments crisis, even came to China looking for a loan. But this fall China found its own economy cooling so fast that its leaders issued statements saying that the best thing it could do to help the world economy was to help itself.

Coming into this global slowdown, 30 years of capitalist-style reforms pioneered by Deng Xiaoping had transformed China from an isolated and impoverished nation into one of the world's great economic powers.

Years of white-hot, double-digit growth driven by exports and investment went hand in hand with achievements in politics, science and engineering and the arts.

Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist for Citigroup, said that China grew so quickly because it had the "advantage of backwardness."

"As China used to be a very backward country, there was huge potential for the economic and technological development," Huang said.

China has trumpeted its achievements in the past few years especially: It hosted the Olympics and pulled off its first spacewalk, and native sons and daughters such as Jet Li and Zhang Ziyi became Hollywood darlings. Its engineers have built the world's the largest building (the new Beijing airport), the longest trans-oceanic bridge (connecting Shanghai to Hangzhou), longest plateau railway (to Tibet), the fastest train (Shanghai's "maglev") and the largest dam (Three Gorges).

China has been using its increasing wealth to buy political clout by investing in underdeveloped parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. It is gaining influence in global economic institutions such as the Group of Eight and the International Monetary Fund, which have long been dominated by Western powers. It is now the biggest holder of U.S. Treasury securities.

Economists said that despite all the wealth implied by such a large GDP, China should still be considered a poor country.

Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-affiliated think tank, emphasized that widespread unemployment and rural poverty are still major problems. China's 1.3 billion residents have a per capita GDP of about $2,500 while Germany's 82 million inhabitants have a per capita GDP of $40,400.

"If we look at the per capita figures we still have a long way to go," Yi said.

(Washington Post)

12/22/2008

China 2009 GDP growth seen at 6.8 pct


BEIJING- Standard Chartered expects China to achieve real GDP growth of only 6.8 pct in 2009, down from a forecast of 9.0 pct for this year and 2007's growth of 11.9 pct.

In a note, Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green said a painful first half next year should be followed by a mild recovery in sentiment in the second half.

There is likely to be a sharp slowdown in private investment in the first half, as well as continued weakening of consumer sentiment, Green said.

Real estate prices probably have further to fall, but there is strong fundamental demand at cheaper levels, he said.

Green added that the yuan could weaken mildly against the US dollar due to concerns about exports.

He expects the yuan to trade at 6.82 to the dollar by the end of this year, and at 6.95 and 6.10 by the end of 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Green added that the central bank could cut one-year deposit rates by 1.0 pct and one-year lending rates by 4.0 pct next year, while the reserve requirement could be lowered to 13 pct.

(Forbes)

12/15/2008

China economy at crossroads after 30 years of reform

BEIJING - Who would have thought a few months ago that China might end up remembering 2008 not for the Beijing Olympics or May's Sichuan earthquake but for the demise of the country's model of economic development?

Might is the operative word. China's attachment to investment, exports and heavy industry runs deep.

After all, these have been the drivers of the remarkable growth of 10 percent a year that China has enjoyed since it embarked on market reforms 30 years ago this month, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

Weaning the economy off exports in favor of domestic consumption driven by services is easier said than done.

But the closure of thousands of factories as export demand evaporates has dealt a serious blow to China's confidence. President Hu Jintao has gone so far as to say that turning the challenges posed by the global credit crisis into opportunities would be a test of the Communist Party's capacity to govern.

China, in short, realizes it needs to stand on its own feet.

So expectations are running high that a meeting starting on Monday of China's top leaders to chart economic policy for 2009 will finally get serious about boosting home-grown spending.

The scale of the task is daunting. Household consumption last year made up just 35.3 percent of China's gross domestic product, a record low for a major country in peacetime. In the 1980s, it was over 50 percent.

By comparison, the U.S. ratio last year was 72 percent. If America spends too much for the sake of global economic balance, China has taken thrift to new extremes. That needs to change.

Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist with Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong, cites the pending nationwide expansion of a scheme offering a 13 percent tax break to rural buyers of televisions and washing machines as evidence that China is already looking to tap its own potential.

The initial pilot program in a handful of provinces led to a 40 percent increase in sales of household appliances.

"The fact manufacturers are turning to Chinese villagers rather than American consumers is a symbolic milestone in the global rebalancing story," Simpfendorfer said.

"This is a slow burn story. It won't save the global economy from its current problems. But it may help to shape the global economy over the next decade," he added.

GETTING READY

Raising the income tax threshold; pay rises for state workers; increases in housing subsidies and minimum income support; and extra outlays on health, pensions and education are among other ideas this week's strategy sessions will examine to get people to spend more freely.

But, skeptics ask, if Beijing is so serious about increasing disposable incomes, why is the state budget for health care and education so puny? These are the two largest out-of-pocket expenses for most Chinese.

Public spending on health care and education comes to just 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent of GDP respectively, well below the global average. And only 1 percent of China's new 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan is earmarked for the two sectors.

One of the rationalizations is that China has not had the bureaucracy in place to ensure extra money is used wisely.

It's easy to pour concrete to build a clinic. It's tougher to train doctors and nurses and administer a medical insurance scheme across a sprawling, developing country -- to say nothing of making sure the money is not siphoned off.

But Calla Wiemer, a visiting scholar at the University of California-Los Angeles Center for Chinese Studies, says China has made notable progress in recent years by shifting responsibility for the delivery of social services from towns and villages to the county level, where personnel are better trained.

By last year, 86 percent of rural counties had established cooperative medical schemes, she said in a recent opinion piece.

"While these have not been ambitious in terms of the dollar amounts -- the level of coverage is typically under $10 per person per year -- they've contributed importantly to administrative capacity building," Wiemer wrote.

SPENDING, NOT STEEL

David Dollar, head of the World Bank office in Beijing, makes a similar point.

"The institutional structures are in place so that the government could increase spending quite significantly and quite effectively," he said. "It would be both good fiscal stimulus and it would help with the whole social development agenda."

That sounds like common sense, but some scholars wonder whether China has the political set-up needed to accommodate a switch from infrastructure to social spending.

Zhiwu Chen, a finance professor at Yale School of Management, argues that returning money to the people -- through lower taxes or spending on social programs -- is not a priority in China because its leaders do not have to stand for election.

This explains not only why democracies such as Brazil and India lag behind China in infrastructure but why China's economic stimulus package is concentrated on road and rail building.

"In a non-democracy, officials are held accountable to their superiors, not voters. And for one's superiors, tangible projects are the easiest to recognize," Chen said in a syndicated column.

For 30 years, concentrating resources in the hands of the government through state ownership and taxes has served China well. But the private consumption needed to power self-sustained growth is lacking. For that, Chen argues, China must boost incomes and increase people's sense of financial security.

"Building a nation demands more than steel and concrete," he wrote.

(Reuters)

12/10/2008

Australian central bank says China slowing quickly

SYDNEY, Australia — The Chinese economy has slowed more quickly than expected during the global economic crisis and its growth rate may already have fallen below 8 percent, Australia's central bank chief said.

"The most striking real economic fact of the past several months is not continued U.S. economic weakness, but that China's economy has slowed much more quickly than anyone had forecast," Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens told economists at a Sydney dinner on Tuesday.

In his final public address for the year, a transcript of which was published on the bank's Web site Wednesday, Stevens said his bank estimated that Chinese industrial production probably declined from July to October.

"There is every chance that the rate of growth of China's GDP is currently noticeably below the 8 percent pace that is embodied in various forecasts for 2009," Stevens said.

Beijing had quickly reversed policies aimed at slowing a once overheating economy to head it toward expansion, he said. "So there is a good chance that China's economy will be looking stronger in a year's time than it does today."

Chinese leaders began weighing possible plans Monday to expand a massive stimulus package with higher spending on health and social programs amid signs an economic slowdown is worsening.

Beijing is trying to figure out how to get the most out of a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) package announced in early November meant to shield China from a global slowdown with spending on construction and other projects.

Growth of the world's fourth largest economy is expected to fall to about 9 percent this year, down from last year's 11.9 percent

(AP)